Eric Holscher posted this post today, and I wanted to share my speculation.

Calling it now:

• Google stops paying Apple & Mozilla for search
• Apple ships search (probably buys DDG or similar)
• Apple pays Mozilla to be default search engine

Google stops paying Apple & Mozilla for search

This judgment means that Google has to give up overpaying to be the default search engine for Apple and Mozilla. It’s the primary basis of the lawsuit, and the judge wrote a 300-page judgment. So, it’s safe to say it will happen even if Alphabet isn’t formally broken up.

Apple ships search (probably buys DDG or similar)

Short term: Because Apple already has an AI deal with Google, I expect Apple’s default search to stay the same despite Google not being able to pay them for that default. Apple will change the options menu, but Google will remain the default.

Long shot/Longer term: Apple buys a few search companies and creates its own search products, as it did with Apple Maps. Search isn’t going to look like Google search does today, or, better yet, it looked like a decade ago before it because of an ad-first search secondary service.

Apple pays Mozilla to be default search engine

I do not see this happening even if Mozilla spends most of its cash buying a search company. Mozilla won’t be able to pay Apple to use it, and they need an incentive to switch. Logistically, Mozilla would cease to exist before this could happen.

Apple doesn’t want to be a search company or incorporate ads like Google and Meta do with their products. Even Apple TV’s ads are mostly for other Apple TV content.

What about Mozilla?

Mozilla will either pivot to try to buy or partner with Kagi, DDG, or Brave (gross, but the most likely). The Mozilla Foundation is facing a potentially extinction-level event, but it has a billion-dollar nest egg to fall back on.

Mozilla has cash, but its options may not resemble the Mozilla Foundation we know today.